If Kiev joins NATO it will lose the possibilities of influence in the country.ĤPro-European and anti-corruption protests in Kiev against former pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych were violently suppressed.

Moscow tries to prevent Ukraine's turn to the West (Tamilina, 2022 Astrov et al. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion and military development of the territory of Ukraine by the Alliance is also unacceptable to Russia. The overall missing rail volumes will also exacerbate the container shipping capacity issue and port congestions in Europe.1There are several keys and arguments, from the historical point of view, behind the Russian military intervention, where Putin questions the sovereignty of Ukraine and underlines the historical linkage of Russia with Ukraine.ĢThe Russian leader considers that Ukraine is not just a neighboring country, but an inalienable part of Russia's history, culture and spiritual space, and that modern Ukraine was created entirely by Russia (Kuzio, 2018).ģThe confrontation and tension between the two countries has been present since 2014. Yet their challenge is to scale up quickly, subject to the potential bottlenecks in the Caspian Sea links.Īlthough we expect limited impact on F&A logistics on the rail front, European exports of grains and dairy products hauled via China-bound rail could be at risk if the situation continues to worsen. The current war will also bring new opportunities to alternative routes such as the southern routes via Turkey. Current sanctions on Russian Railways do not apply to goods flowing through Russia. As of March 7, routes via Ukraine stopped, while other routes (including via Russia and Belarus) are still operating but with an increasing risk of future blockage.

The top products, such as electronics, automotive parts, and textiles, are not F&A related, but helped to alleviate 2021’s port congestions in Europe.Īround 4% of China-Europe rail freight transited via Russia (the Trans-Siberian route) and 2% via Ukraine. 2021 saw 1.46m TEUs of cargo shipped by train between China and Europe, a 30% YOY increase.

Ukraine russia war 2020